Monkeypox 20220826, Runaway pandemic possible?
Not slowing down, 461 out of 466 are men, over 98% are men.
Section on whether it will be a runaway pandemic further down this post. First the numbers. Links to earlier reports at the end of this post.
To make clearer for non-mathematical people what is happening I need to do a graph with the earlier data with an exponential fit and the later data with a linear fit.
The cases are a little over 98% men.
The rate of increase doesn’t seem to be slowing down. It is remaining 98% men. So it appears to be still sexually transmitted among men who have sex with men, and in a few cases it is their girlfriends or wives or other type of transmission. There is no indication that it is going to be spreading among the general straight population yet.
The earlier initial exponential rise is not happening, but are still on track to reach a little under 600 cases by Sept. 1st.
Will it become a runaway pandemic?
The critical piece issue is whether Dallas County will be able to get enough vaccine and get it out to people in a timely way as well as the effectiveness of the vaccination. (Shortage and runaway in next section)
RESTRICTIONS
The restrictions are being loosened, but what the county needs to do is have a place where you can walk in and get the vaccination without questions being asked. There are people who won’t want their sex lives in an official county record.
Dallas County Health is not to be entirely blamed for this or maybe not at all. There is a severe shortage of vaccine and they are likely targeting who receives the limited supply of vaccine to those for whom it would be most effective to slow down the pandemic. Plus I don’t know if Dallas County Health had made the decision not to ask for many doses of vaccine initially or the federal government had restricted them. When the cases were small I think that they might have just had walk-ins. I don’t have access to numbers and strategies.
With the shortage of vaccine, Dallas County may not have any choice to just make the best use of the available vaccines, with the understanding that they aren’t going to bring monkeypox under control. Perhaps at this point there are no good choices.
Location of Vaccination Centers
Also, I don’t understand why a monkeypox vaccination location isn’t closer to the Cedar Spring strip. It might not be the decision of Dallas County Health but local Dallas Respectability Gays who don’t want it close to the strip and are whining that it isn’t a Gay disease. Well it impacting 98% men. It is Gay enough in my mind, but for the Dallas Gay leadership they always worry what will the straight people think.
Shortage and Monkeypox Pandemic Runaway.
The issue is whether the United States and Dallas County Health will have enough vaccine to continue vaccinating or will they be running out or have an inadequate supply. The reason they have the above mentioned restrictions is because they have a shortage of vaccine to give out.
This is an article in Politico, which is the voice of the neoliberal Democrats. They aren’t radicals at all.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/24/monkeypox-vaccine-lgbtq-00053410
From the article:
The federal government last week slashed the number of vials states received in anticipation of each being able to vaccinate up to five people per vial instead of one.
They are running out. Further, from the article nurses can’t actually get five doses from each vial. The way they are stretching it is to give the vaccine shots differently than before as done in earlier studies. The new method is called “intradermal vaccination.”
But health officials in half a dozen states told POLITICO that they are routinely able to extract only three or four doses per vial, meaning they were able to vaccinate fewer people last week than if the federal government had made no changes at all because of the drastically reduced allocations.
This means fewer people getting vaccinated than before in an effort already failing.
These officials have had to scramble to reorganize their vaccination efforts — canceling clinics, rescheduling staff and delaying plans to expand eligibility.
The article explains that because of the shortage and the fact you can’t really get five doses has meant vaccination clinics have been cancelled, planned loosing of restrictions had to be cancelled, and people showing up for vaccination being turned away.
The article reports:
“… public health experts fear the window of opportunity for stopping the virus’s spread is closing.”
They provide this link to an earlier article, “Monkeypox may be here to stay.” https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/14/monkeypox-here-to-stay-00051560
Once the rate of spread gets beyond a certain point there is no hope that the short supply of vaccine will be able to slow its spread.
So it looks like a runaway pandemic is perhaps just weeks away. I don’t know for sure, but they don’t know either, but it does seem that it is really very possible.
Vaccination effectiveness
There are questions concerning the vaccines effectiveness as originally given. This article, “How effective is the monkeypox vaccine? Scientists scramble for clues,” is in Science magazine, the publication of the American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). It is one of the two most authoritative science magazines in the English speaking world. It is about MVA smallpox vaccine developed by Bavarian Nordic company being used for monkeypox given the name Jynneos.
Again, the vaccine being given for monkeypox is actually a vaccine for smallpox. It will help, but how much is not known. This is about the single and two dose regime as originally given, not the new under the skin method adopted. Quoting from the article:
There’s little doubt the vaccine can help, but that’s about all that’s certain. Exactly how well MVA protects against monkeypox and for how long is not known. Nor is it clear how much protection is lost by giving just a single dose rather than the recommended two doses, as some countries are doing to stretch supply, or how much protection a vaccine given after exposure can offer.
The article goes on to explain that the effectiveness of the smallpox vaccine for monkeypox has a variety of issues.
The article states:
So far, there’s scant data on how well the vaccine is working in the current outbreak.
There are further questions regarding the new strategy of vaccination to stretch the supply by dividing a single dose into five doses in which it is injected intradermally instead of the prior method.
This is an article in Nature magazine, the other science magazine which is one of the two most credible science magazines in the English speaking world.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41541-022-00527-4
It is a long technical article, but basically the conclusion is that the effectiveness of the new method isn’t known. Studies need to be done. They are doing this new vaccination method because they are running out of vaccine. The new method is based on limited studies.
So at this point we don’t have enough doses to do enough vaccinations and the vaccinations that we will be doing have questions about their effectiveness.
Stonewall Democrats
Given the bungling of the response to monkeypox you would think that the LGBTQIAPI++ (Sorry, I don’t remember all 14 letters and numbers) Democrats might be raising hell over this.
The issue is that with that many interests, Gay concerns tend to be lost in the shuffle. The Stonewall Democrats are likely squeamish on STDs, my experience is that they are. Also, the Stonewall Democrats are vote harvesters for the Democrats first and last and the mid-terms are coming up and they don’t want to be naughty LGBTQ+ Democrats negatively impacting the mid-term elections. I don’t know what they currently are saying in their Facebook group because they banned me for asking difficult questions and calling them vote harvester.
Dallas (Vichy) Voice
They are doing some reporting. I am not seeing a real focus on this as the monkeypox catastrophe unfolds. I have been here since 1987 and the Dallas (Vichy) Voice has always been concerned about respectability and part of an establishment which is concerned about Respectability Gay politics. This article in D Magazine shows the mentality of the Gay leadership in the 1990s.
Respectability Gays
I have seen posts on social media where the focus is to blame Gays for their sexually liberated lifestyles. Respectability Gays would love to see everyone be forced into monogamous relationship and be just like the straight people and assimilate.
Monkeypox could shut down sexual liberation in the Gay community which would suit the Respectability Gays and the LGBTQXYZ establishment (same thing I think) just fine.
What needs to be done.
We need to have Gay centered groups concerned about Gay concerns and not working for Democrats, Republicans or other bodies. We need to have a health plan to support a sexually liberated lifestyle and not oriented towards assimilation into imitating straight people.
The monkeypox epidemic didn’t need to happen. African scientists have been warning people that it could happen for years and years. The following article is, “Monkeypox in Africa: the science the world ignored.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01686-z
There is no focus in the LGBTQXYZ groups to have federal programs focused on vaccines for syphilis and gonorrhea. Instead their is this attitude we should get married and adopt kids and live behind a picket fence. The little “G” that is in the LGBTQXYZ are those who tend to be respectability Gays or assimilationist Gays and not mainstream Gays and want to prove to straight people their moral credentials. They aren’t centered around Gay concerns.
That is why there hasn’t been an effective program by LGBTQXYZ to STDs in general and why they aren’t raising a fuss over the bungling of the Biden administration regarding monkeypox.
I provide a link to an article about what an effective Gay health program might be after the link to the earlier article on monkeypox in Dallas county.