Monkeypox info 20220814
Status of monkeypox in Dallas County, how effective is the vaccine, and good resources for info on monkeypox. How did this happen in the first place.
FIRST SOME REALLY GOOD RESOURCES ON MONKEYPOX
This article, for general readers, by Ars Technica, a news medium I have a paid subscription to, is a good comprehensive article and this is a legitimate technical news site. There is no paywall to this article.
This article is for the scientific reader, but I think the average leader can learn from it. Nature magazine is one of the two most important scientific news magazines in the English speaking world.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02178-w
I won’t be sharing content farm junk in this newsletter.
At the very end of this newsletter is the letter I sent to Dallas County Health. It has a lot of links which are to Science magazine and Nature magazine and provide a lot of really good articles about monkeypox, origins, issues.
RECENT TRENDS IN DALLAS COUNTY
It is a Gay disease mostly. Out of the 292 confirmed cases, only 3 are women as of 8/12/2022. Though it can spread in contact with sores and through bedding and clothes it seems to be confined to Men having Sex with Men. (MSM)
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/monkeypox.php
Once vaccinated can I resume sex?
First the vaccine takes some time to have an effect, that is to confer immunity so you need to wait the time it takes to immunize.
The question Gays have is after that time it takes for the vaccine to immunize can you resume regular sexual activity.
It isn’t clear. Science magazine is the official publication of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). It is one of the two most credible magazines in the English speaking world on the subject of science. For a limited number of articles there isn’t a paywall.
The shots will help, but how much really isn’t known. If you have the opportunity to get shots do get shots. I suspect if both you and the person you are having sex with both have been vaccinated, your risk is probably a lot lower than if you are vaccinated and he isn’t, but I don’t know how much.
What needs to be asked is why we have no good information on this. (See section on failure of their being a good Gay health agenda.)
Exponential growth doesn’t appear to be happening.
As I expected the exponential curve wouldn’t work as people became aware of monkeypox and changed their sexual activity and also as people got vaccinated.
The R2 is now 0.9 which indicates that it isn’t a fit. You need 0.95 or higher.
HOWEVER, it could be that the case #s aren’t representing timely reporting of cases, and this non-fitting is based on one point. I won’t know until I get a couple more points.
The issue is what happens is Dallas County Health runs out of vaccines and there is a runaway situation where monkeypox spreads faster than vaccines can be brought to Dallas County. Though I think monkeypox is something that scares people and likely sexual activity is slowing down.
This curve fit is still very good at R2 = 0.99, however it is just a fit. As I add more data to this fitted curve the projected number of cases by Sept. 1st is dropping. Again, as with the other curve it probably will be another week to see how fast the rate of rise is going to be. Also, again, after Dallas County Health runs out of vaccine what will happen, will we develop a situation where it is a runaway since the new cases will outstrip the supply of vaccine. We really don’t know.
Gay anti-vaxxers
Take note who is refusing to get a monkeypox vaccination. They probably aren’t getting vaccinations for HPV or Hepatitis A & B either and won’t be getting vaccinated for Herpes and HIV when those vaccines come out. At the end of this newsletter I have a meme on this. Feel free to use it.
How did this happen in the first place?
There isn’t a focused plan to deal with STDs even though Gays are more likely to get them due to increased sexual activity. The Respectability Gays are embarrassed by this and also with LGBTQIAP+ organizations Gay issues get lost in the shuffle.
A Gay health political objective would be support for pandemic prevention and also pro-active development of vaccines for tropical diseases.
I have a comprehensive review of the failure of the LGBTQIAP+ groups to adequately deal with Gay health issues in this post in another newsletter.
This is likely to happen again if there isn’t a focused Gay health agenda.
CONCLUSION
I am going to track how this develops and will be reporting on this.
Remember, share or subscribe and share so I can get important news out to the Gay community.
A meme for your use.
July 10, 2022
Edward H. Sebesta
Dr. Philip Huang
Director Dallas County Health and Human Services
2377 N. Stemmons Freeway
Dallas, Texas 75207
Dear Dr. Huang:
There immediately needs to be distribution of smallpox vaccination for those at high risk for it in Dallas County.
New York City is already moving to start a program of vaccinations for high-risk persons, men who have sex with men.
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/about/press/pr2022/monkeypox-vaccine-clinic.page
This article in Nature magazine, published a little over a month ago, (5/20/2022), with its complacent expectation that ring vaccination would contain monkeypox has already been shown to be false. Monkeypox is spreading and spreading fast.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01421-8
This article in Science, the publication of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), of which I am a member, properly informs the public that the number of cases is “soaring.”
https://www.science.org/content/article/monkeypox-outbreak-questions-intensify-cases-soar
The national response to monkeypox has been dilatory. As of 7/10/2022 we don’t hear of a national campaign for vaccination or any program to stop monkeypox from running riot in the Gay community.
Of course, if routine smallpox vaccinations had been continued even after the elimination of smallpox, the Gay community and the public at large would be safe from monkeypox. The problem is, as reported over decades in Science magazine, is that the technologically advanced nations imagine that tropical diseases will remain tropical and not impact the temperate regions where the technologically advanced nations exist. So, smallpox vaccinations were discontinued and monkeypox vaccinations weren’t developed.
This article in Nature discusses how the warnings of African scientists were ignored for years.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01686-z
The reason government is dithering and delaying in taking effective measures is suggested in this POZ magazine article.
https://www.poz.com/article/lgbt-community-enough-fight-monkeypox
The subtitles states simply the cause of a slow response, “Efforts to avoid stigma and homophobia could be keeping us silent when we need to be speaking out.”
Don’t let the Respectability Gays in Dallas risk the health of the Gay community.
I suggest that Dallas County not site on its hands and dither, but immediately undertake a program to roll out smallpox vaccinations for the Gay community in Dallas. There should be published some plan of action.
Sincerely Yours,
Edward H. Sebesta